Will 10% Capacity at Stadiums and Arenas Help the NY Concert Industry?

In two weeks, approved New York arenas and stadiums can admit up to 10% capacity under prescribed conditions, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced at a press conference today. The loosening of COVID-era restrictions will begin at Barclays Center in Brooklyn on February 23, when the New York Nets play basketball against the Sacramento Kings.

Venues that hold at least 10,000 people — which in New York City would include Madison Square Garden, Barclays Center, Citi Field and Yankee Stadium — would need to be approved by the state's Department of Health. Venue operators must conform to the DOH mandates on capacity limitations, testing requirements, face coverings, temperature checks, and assigned and socially distanced seating. Venues also must collect contact information from all those in attendance to help inform contact tracing efforts, meet enhanced air filtration, ventilation and purification standards, and ensure retail, food services and athletic activities abide by all state-issued guidance.

For admission to approved venues, ticketholders will need to show proof of a negative PCR nasal swab test taken within 72 hours of the event. Inside the venue, attendees must agree to have their temperature checked, wear a face covering, and sit at socially-distant reserved seats.

DOH already cleared Barclays Center in Brooklyn to admit spectators. The arena has a capacity of about 17,700 seats for basketball games, meaning as many as 1,770 sports fans can be admitted. Spectators had been barred from attending all professional competitions and large concerts in New York since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

Gov. Cuomo's proposed concerts at 10% capacity in arenas may be unreasonable, but live music happens every night at small New York venues. Pictured above, Grady Tesch performed with his jazz quartet at Rue-B on February 4.

The loosening of restrictions means that the venues can sell tickets and also re-hire ushers, concessioners and other staff who have been on furlough for nearly a year.

"While we continue to fight COVID on multiple fronts, we must also get this economy re-opened intelligently and in a balanced way," Governor Cuomo said. "Live sports and entertainment have long been engrained in the fabric of New York and the inability to hold events has only added to the isolation we have all felt at the hands of this virus. Thankfully, our pilot program to reopen Buffalo Bills games to fans was an unparalleled success and now we are taking that model and expanding it to other large venues across the state to not only reinvigorate local economies, but also help bring some fun and joy back into people's lives as safely as possible."

The Buffalo Bills played two playoff home games in January, each with approximately 6,700 spectators. Ticketholders had to show proof of a negative test and adhere to safety precautions while at the stadium. Since then, Cuomo repeatedly has stated that "testing is the key."

The governor said that New York cannot wait for herd immunity, which would be many months away. He said that testing is the single most critical key to the re-openings.

"The truth is, we cannot stay closed until everyone is vaccinated. The economic, psychological, emotional cost would be incredible," the governor said.

Barynya performed Russian folk music at the Anyway Café on February 5

Large Scale Concerts at 10% Capacity

The new initiative also would extend past sports and include concerts. Consumers who provide a negative PCR test within 72 hours of an event will be able to attend music shows and performances at the approved arenas and stadiums.

"The success of this, and similar events in approved venues over the coming weeks will help inform the re-opening process for smaller venues in the future," Cuomo said.

The new policies benefit sporting events, which for months have been played to empty seats, generating revenue instead from television and radio broadcasts. The games, which were going to be played whether or not there was a seated audience, now will generate additional commerce directly from the public. Fans tend to spend money on food, drinks, and souvenirs.

Concerts, however, are a separate consideration. Madison Square Garden has Justin Bieber and JoJo Siwa scheduled for July concerts, Rage Against the Machine for five August concerts, and several more concerts booked for the fall months. Barclays Center has Justin Bieber and My Chemical Romance booked for summer shows. There has been no announcement from these venues about hosting any concerts at 10% capacity, however.

Will concert promoters and music acts who normally sell 15,000 to 20,000 seats for an arena concert find financial viability in selling tickets to 1,500 to 2,000 buyers? Will the promoters and music acts reduce 50,000 to 80,000-capacity stadium concerts to 5,000 to 8,000 fans? Not likely. This would mean that a touring music act that under pre-COVID circumstances would have headlined a 20,000-seat concert at Madison Square Garden still would be unable to perform anywhere for an audience that size. Instead, for instance, a music act that normally would headline the Beacon Theater would perform at Madison Square Garden, where one-in-10 seats would be occupied. The 10%-capacity model does not work for any size concert, and especially not in arenas and stadiums.

The scarcity of tickets in these hypothetical situations would drive the box office prizes sky high. Presumably, for a one-in-10 seats concert to be financially viable, the ticket price for a single ticket would have to sell for 10 times as much. A sell-out concert would mean that the secondary market would scalp customers for even higher prices.

The Underground Harmony performed at Caravan of Dreams on February 5

For the foreseeable future, big-name touring music acts likely will not assemble a road crew and contract to perform on large stages. The financial intake will not justify the expense of touring, and mandated quarantines at many state borders make a cross-country tour impractical. Many of the ticketed concerts scheduled now were postponed from last year and in high probability will be cancelled.

Throughout the pandemic, most music performances have been held either entirely outdoors or indoors to audiences seated outdoors. Very few of these concerts catered to large audiences. Instead of attending large, ticketed concerts, music fans found free admission concerts at parks, sidewalk cafés, street corners, as well as numerous non-traditional venues including porches, fire escapes and the backs of pickup trucks. Several venues in New York City, including the Anyway Café, Baby Brasa, Marshall Stack and Rue-B, continue to host live music several nights each week, usually with the musicians indoors and the audiences outdoors.

Starting this Friday, restaurants in New York City can admit 25%-indoor capacity, and several of these restaurants will book live music. Some of the larger music venues, like City Winery, hope to reopen a little later, when the state permits 50% capacity. Smaller venues like the Red Lion are poised to resume their music nights at 25% indoor capacity.

The live music landscape continues to change with frequency. This past Monday, Cuomo announced NY PopsUp and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Open Culture, both programs which will bring live entertainment to local communities. Various initiatives promise a future for live music in some form, but for the time being, the core of New York's music circuit will continue to be the small restaurants where musicians play for tips.