Concerts Play On as Attendance Shrinks

Billy Joel at Madison Square Garden on December 20 (photograph by Francesco Marano)

Inside Madison Square Garden on December 20, Billy Joel and his band were getting ready to perform their monthly residency on stage. Outside, many people on the sidewalk were hoping a passerby would purchase their extra ticket. The going price was cheap, even free in some cases. There were more tickets than people, however, so many ticket holders were stuck with tickets they could not use.

In general, musicians these days are performing to less than capacity houses, even when shows sell out. No-shows are far more common in the COVID era. Music fans who spent hundreds of dollars on concert tickets are forfeiting, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal last week. The report says that since this past summer's reboot in the live music industry, as many as 17 to 20 percent of ticket buyers are not using their tickets. Pre-COVID, no-show rates for bigger shows were typically 1 to 3 percent.

Concurrently, Billboard reports that says smaller club and theater shows have seen no-show rates as high as 25% to 30%, although the average is likely significantly lower. Live music audiences seem to be more concerned about the possible spread of COVID in smaller, more confined spaces.

No-show rates are lower at newly-scheduled shows. No-show rates tend to be highest for concerts that have been rescheduled multiple times. Consistent with that theory, more concerts were rescheduled over the past two years than ever before. Rescheduling a concert would cause a loss of attendance in any time period, but with multiple rescheduling, fans have been holding tickets for as long as two years. This means that some fans forget they have tickets, especially if they purchased them long ago. Other fans may have missed the deadline for a refund. On the other hand, some fans intentionally boycott concerts when new entry protocols arise that were non-existent when the tickets were purchased originally.

Concerts that attract older audiences, including recent tours by Dead & Company, the Eagles, the Flaming Lips, Billy Joel, and George Strait, appear to have the largest number of no-shows, the estimated high end of 20 percent. While the artists and the venues still gain revenue from a sold ticket, the older audience tends to spend more money at a concert than younger audiences. The musicians and the venues lose potential alcohol, food and merchandise sales when a ticket holder does not attend the concert.

Gov't Mule at the Beacon Theatre on December 30, 2019; this year's concerts have been moved to April 2022

The Most Recent Postponements and Cancellations

Concert promoters are booking shows for the spring and summer, but the end of 2021 is seeing an increasing number of postponements and cancelations, as has been reported daily in The Manhattan Beat. Here are some of the latest blasts.

"How can we put this....We're postponing the show," the Strokes announced yesterday on social media. "We were so excited to be performing for everyone in Brooklyn this New Year's Eve, but the Omicron variant has thwarted our plans. We’ve made the decision to postpone our show at Barclays Center."

Gov't Mule announced yesterday via social media that the band's December 30 and 31 concerts at the Beacon Theatre have been moved to April 8 and 9. The notice said that "With the recent spike in new cases as a result of the Omicron variant, we’ve made what we feel is the only safe decision for us and our fans: to postpone our New Year’s Run. The health and safety of our fans, crew and all involved in making these shows happen is always our top priority. We don’t want any of our crew or fans to risk possibly getting sick nor would we want anyone missing out because they feel the right decision for them is to stay home."

Cirque du Soleil and MSG Entertainment today announced that Cirque du Soleil is canceling the five remaining performances of Twas the Night Before… at the Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden. The statement said that "We are sorry to announce that the five remaining performances of Twas the Night Before… scheduled for Sunday, December 26 and Monday, December 27 have been canceled due to breakthrough COVID-19 cases in the production. We apologize for the inconvenience and sincerely thank all the families and fans who made us part of their holiday festivities this season."

David Byrne's American Utopia was among the Broadway productions that saw cancelations this past week. The production adapted on social media the now standard apology. "As a result of breakthrough COVID cases in the company, and out of an abundance of caution, American Utopia canceled performances on December 22-23." The limited engagement at the St. James Theatre will resume with two performances on December 26,

Live Music on Christmas Night

The following are among the best live music events scheduled for tonight in downtown Manhattan. The Manhattan Beat recommends a call to the venue for an update before travelling.

• Chris Botti at the Blue Note (8 & 10:30 p.m.)
• Oz Noy at the 55 Bar
• Jackson Scott at the Anyway Café

Oz Noy at the Bitter End on August 13; he will perform two sets tonight at the 55 Bar starting at 9:30 p.m.

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The Manhattan Beat covers New York City's live music developments as they happen. All photographs are by Everynight Charley Crespo, except when noted otherwise. For a list of Manhattan venues that are presenting live music regularly, swing the desktop cursor to the right and click on the pop-up tab "Where to Find Live Music." For a listing of upcoming concerts for live audiences, visit The Manhattan Beat's December 2021 and January 2022 calendars.